US February PCE Core Inflation Hits Forecasted Rise of 2.8% Year on Year

Title: Comprehensive Analysis of US Core PCE and Consumer Spending for February

Meta Description: In-depth exploration of the latest US Core PCE and consumer spending trend, noting revisions from the prior month, income data, and investing implications.

Keyword: US Core PCE, Consumer spending, Income data, y/y numbers, Inflation, Goods and Services


The recent data on US Core PCE (image) and consumer spending sparks a significant conversation on the country’s economic status. Here’s an elaborate breakdown of the figures.

Last month, the US Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) settled at 2.8%, however, it was later revised to 2.9%. The month-over-month core report was in line with expectations at +0.3%. This slightly differs from the initial report that saw a +0.4% increase, later modified to +0.5% after data review.

Investors pay close attention to the headline PCE, which clocked a 2.5% year-on-year, aligning with the market expectation. The previous statistic stood at 2.4%. On a month-to-month basis, the headline PCE was slightly lesser at +0.3%, against the expected +0.4%.

An intriguing observation is a growth in the six-month core annualized rate from 2.6% to 2.9%.

Switching gears to consumer spending and income for February, personal income experienced a growth of +0.3%, falling marginally short of the predicted +0.4%. However, personal spending surged by +0.8%, superseding the anticipated +0.5% growth. The reading for real personal spending was placed at +0.4%, an increase from the -0.1% recorded last month.

While the revisions for the January data slightly affect the overall narrative, it’s not sufficient to alter February’s year-on-year numbers significantly.

The investment community might note a slightly heated economic environment, potentially resulting in a marginally softer dollar. One possible focus is the lower month-over-month headline reading.

A deeper look at the spending reveals an uptick in goods by 0.5% and services by 0.9%. On the inflation front, goods prices dropped by 0.2% year-on-year, while service prices saw a drastic increase of 3.8% year-on-year.

Closing out the discussion is the data visualization of the US core PCE month-over-month (image). This representation provides an in-depth understanding of the data distribution and trend.

In conclusion, keeping a close eye on these economic indicators helps investors anticipate market trends and make informed decisions.

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